{"id":2131,"date":"2020-03-08T14:06:25","date_gmt":"2020-03-08T12:06:25","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/csaladenes.egologo.ro\/?p=2131"},"modified":"2020-03-08T18:10:34","modified_gmt":"2020-03-08T16:10:34","slug":"virusmodellezes-%f0%9f%a6%a0-koronavirus-karanten","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/csaladenes.egologo.transindex.adatbank.ro\/?p=2131","title":{"rendered":"V\u00edrusmodellez\u00e9s ? Koronav\u00edrus &#8211; Karant\u00e9n?!"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>A<strong> <a href=\"https:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Coronavirus_disease_2019\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">koronav\u00edrus<\/a> <\/strong>marg\u00f3j\u00e1n <strong>h\u00e9t, egyre n\u00f6vekv\u0151 komplexit\u00e1s\u00fa epidemiol\u00f3giai modellt<\/strong> \u00e9p\u00edtettem \u00e9s ezek seg\u00edts\u00e9g\u00e9vel azt vizsg\u00e1lom, hogyan is alakulnak ki a vil\u00e1gm\u00e9ret\u0171 j\u00e1rv\u00e1nyok. Mi a tudom\u00e1nyos indokl\u00e1s a karant\u00e9nre \u00e9s a sz\u00e1jmaszkra? Ez egy \u00faj t\u00edpus\u00fa, szimul\u00e1ci\u00f3-modellez\u00e9sen alapul\u00f3, <strong>vide\u00f3bejegyz\u00e9s<\/strong> &#8211; ha tetszik, lesz m\u00e9g hasonl\u00f3 ?.<\/p>\n<p><!--more--><\/p>\n<p>El\u0151sz\u00f6r linkeltem a vide\u00f3t, alatta meg a k\u00e9sz interakt\u00edv szimul\u00e1tort. Az oldal alj\u00e1n tov\u00e1bbi hasznos inf\u00f3kat tal\u00e1lsz a koronav\u00edrus terjed\u00e9s\u00e9re vonatkoz\u00f3an.<\/p>\n<h2><a href=\"https:\/\/youtu.be\/xMEisPweHVM\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Vide\u00f3<\/a><\/h2>\n<p><span class=\"embed-youtube\" style=\"text-align:center; display: block;\"><iframe loading=\"lazy\" class=\"youtube-player\" width=\"750\" height=\"422\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/xMEisPweHVM?version=3&#038;rel=1&#038;showsearch=0&#038;showinfo=1&#038;iv_load_policy=1&#038;fs=1&#038;hl=hu-HU&#038;autohide=2&#038;wmode=transparent\" allowfullscreen=\"true\" style=\"border:0;\" sandbox=\"allow-scripts allow-same-origin allow-popups allow-presentation\"><\/iframe><\/span><\/p>\n<hr \/>\n<h2><a href=\"https:\/\/cloud.anylogic.com\/assets\/embed?modelId=207b92d2-d9cf-4438-8487-8e22c6aec955\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">? Szimul\u00e1tor<\/a><\/h2>\n\n<!-- iframe plugin v.4.5 wordpress.org\/plugins\/iframe\/ -->\n<iframe allow=\"fullscreen\" src=\"https:\/\/cloud.anylogic.com\/assets\/embed?modelId=207b92d2-d9cf-4438-8487-8e22c6aec955\" width=\"100%\" height=\"500\" scrolling=\"yes\" class=\"iframe-class\" frameborder=\"0\"><\/iframe>\n\n<hr \/>\n<p><span><strong>? ADATOK + K\u00d3D:<\/strong><\/span><span> <\/span>Az szimul\u00e1tor <strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.anylogic.com\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Anylogic<\/a><\/strong>-ban k\u00e9sz\u00fclt, John Sterman <a href=\"https:\/\/archive.org\/details\/businessdynamics0000ster\/page\/n19\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Business Dynamics<\/a> k\u00f6nyv\u00e9ben bemutatott <strong>rendszerdinamikai<\/strong> (system dynamics) elm\u00e9let alapj\u00e1n. Az SIR modell strukt\u00far\u00e1ja az <a href=\"https:\/\/web.mit.edu\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">MIT<\/a> <a href=\"https:\/\/mitsloan.mit.edu\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Sloan School of Management<\/a> <a href=\"https:\/\/mitsloan.mit.edu\/phd\/program-overview\/system-dynamics\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">System Dynamics<\/a> kurzus\u00e1nak 2013-as kiad\u00e1s\u00e1t k\u00f6veti. Innen az <a href=\"https:\/\/ocw.mit.edu\/courses\/sloan-school-of-management\/15-871-introduction-to-system-dynamics-fall-2013\/assignments\/MIT15_871F13_ass1_SARS.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">els\u0151<\/a> \u00e9s a <a href=\"https:\/\/ocw.mit.edu\/courses\/sloan-school-of-management\/15-871-introduction-to-system-dynamics-fall-2013\/assignments\/MIT15_871F13_ass1.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">m\u00e1sodik <\/a>feladatot haszn\u00e1ltam fel. <a href=\"https:\/\/github.com\/szekelydata\/blog\/tree\/master\/covid19\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Itt el\u00e9rhet\u0151ek<\/a> az AnyLogic <em>alp<\/em> f\u00e1jlok.<\/p>\n<hr \/>\n<p>? Adatvizualiz\u00e1ci\u00f3s \u00e9s inform\u00e1ci\u00f3-design szempontb\u00f3l <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/visualisingdata\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Andy Kirk<\/a> egy <a href=\"https:\/\/www.visualisingdata.com\/2020\/03\/communication-themes-from-coronavirus-outbreak\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\"><strong>szuper list\u00e1t<\/strong> <\/a>\u00e1ll\u00edtott \u00f6ssze, arra vonatkoz\u00f3an, hogy mire kell odafigyeln\u00fcnk a koronav\u00edrussal kapcsolatos (sokszor szenz\u00e1ci\u00f3hajh\u00e1sz vagy egyenesen f\u00e9lreinform\u00e1l\u00f3) h\u00edrekn\u00e9l.<\/p>\n<p>? Ugyanakkor az <a href=\"https:\/\/www.who.int\/emergencies\/diseases\/novel-coronavirus-2019\/advice-for-public\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\"><strong>Eg\u00e9szs\u00e9g\u00fcgyi Vil\u00e1gszervezet egy nagyon hasznos oldalt m\u0171k\u00f6dtet<\/strong><\/a>, r\u00e9szletes viselked\u00e9smint\u00e1kkal \u00e9s vide\u00f3kkal, amik elmagyar\u00e1zz\u00e1k, hogy a v\u00edrus megel\u0151z\u00e9s\u00e9nek \u00e9rdek\u00e9ben hogyan j\u00e1rjunk el.<\/p>\n<p>? Az epidemiol\u00f3giai modellek h\u00e1l\u00f3zatelm\u00e9leti szak\u00e9rt\u0151je, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.mobs-lab.org\/alessandro-vespignani.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Alessandro Vespignani<\/a> \u00e9s a <a href=\"https:\/\/www.mobs-lab.org\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">mobs-lab<\/a> kutat\u00f3laborja a <a href=\"https:\/\/www.northeastern.edu\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Northeastern Egyetem<\/a> <a href=\"https:\/\/www.networkscienceinstitute.org\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">H\u00e1l\u00f3zatelm\u00e9leti Kutat\u00f3int\u00e9zet\u00e9ben<\/a> (<a href=\"https:\/\/www.networkscienceinstitute.org\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">netsi<\/a>). Az \u0151k <a href=\"https:\/\/datastudio.google.com\/reporting\/3ffd36c3-0272-4510-a140-39e288a9f15c\/page\/U5lCB\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\"><strong>koronav\u00edrus \u00f6sszegz\u0151-odala<\/strong> <\/a>nem annyira teljes, mint al\u00e1bb a CSSE-\u00e9, de \u00edgy is \u00e1tfog\u00f3. Ellenben az <a href=\"http:\/\/epirisk.net\/#eyJxdWVyeSI6eyJ0cmF2ZWxMZXZlbCI6MSwicGVyaW9kIjoxMCwidG90YWxDYXNlcyI6MzEyMDAsImRpc3RyaWJ1dGlvbk1vZGUiOiJ1bmlmb3JtIiwibW9udGgiOiJKYW4iLCJnZW9MZXZlbCI6ImJhc2luIiwic291cmNlcyI6W3siaWQiOjQ3NywiY2FzZXMiOjF9XX0sIm1hcCI6eyJjZW50ZXIiOlsxNDguMzUxMDAyNzk3Mzk1NzIsMi44NDIxNzA5NDMwNDA0MDFlLTE0XSwiem9vbSI6Mi4wMDc3MjgwOTQxNzQyNjMyLCJwaXRjaCI6MCwiYmVhcmluZyI6MH19\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\"><strong>EpiRisk<\/strong> <\/a>oldaluk igaz\u00e1n \u00e9rdekes: rep\u00fcl\u0151j\u00e1ratokat figyelembe v\u00e9ve j\u00f3solja meg egy j\u00e1rv\u00e1ny terjed\u00e9si sebess\u00e9g\u00e9t \u00e9s ter\u00fclet\u00e9t!<\/p>\n<p>\u2733 A koronav\u00edrus legut\u00f3bbi fejlem\u00e9nyeinek k\u00f6vet\u00e9s\u00e9re a <a href=\"https:\/\/www.jhu.edu\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Johns Hopkins Egyetem<\/a> Rendszertudom\u00e1nyi \u00e9s M\u00e9rn\u00f6ki Kutat\u00f3k\u00f6zpontja <a href=\"https:\/\/systems.jhu.edu\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">(The Center for Systems Science and Engineering &#8211; CSSE)<\/a> \u00e1ltal m\u0171k\u00f6dtetett oldalt aj\u00e1nlom:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.arcgis.com\/apps\/opsdashboard\/index.html#\/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">Coronavirus COVID19 tracker by CSSE at JHU<\/a><\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>A koronav\u00edrus marg\u00f3j\u00e1n h\u00e9t, egyre n\u00f6vekv\u0151 komplexit\u00e1s\u00fa epidemiol\u00f3giai modellt \u00e9p\u00edtettem \u00e9s ezek seg\u00edts\u00e9g\u00e9vel azt vizsg\u00e1lom, hogyan is alakulnak ki a vil\u00e1gm\u00e9ret\u0171 j\u00e1rv\u00e1nyok. Mi a tudom\u00e1nyos indokl\u00e1s a karant\u00e9nre \u00e9s a sz\u00e1jmaszkra? Ez egy \u00faj t\u00edpus\u00fa, szimul\u00e1ci\u00f3-modellez\u00e9sen alapul\u00f3, vide\u00f3bejegyz\u00e9s &#8211; ha tetszik, lesz m\u00e9g hasonl\u00f3 ?.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":2134,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"spay_email":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_is_tweetstorm":false,"jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"_links_to":"","_links_to_target":""},"categories":[153,224,133],"tags":[24,359,100],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"https:\/\/csaladenes.egologo.transindex.adatbank.ro\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/03\/cov2b.gif","jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/paxMk2-yn","jetpack_likes_enabled":false,"jetpack-related-posts":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/csaladenes.egologo.transindex.adatbank.ro\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2131"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/csaladenes.egologo.transindex.adatbank.ro\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/csaladenes.egologo.transindex.adatbank.ro\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/csaladenes.egologo.transindex.adatbank.ro\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/csaladenes.egologo.transindex.adatbank.ro\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=2131"}],"version-history":[{"count":9,"href":"https:\/\/csaladenes.egologo.transindex.adatbank.ro\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2131\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":2140,"href":"https:\/\/csaladenes.egologo.transindex.adatbank.ro\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2131\/revisions\/2140"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/csaladenes.egologo.transindex.adatbank.ro\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/2134"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/csaladenes.egologo.transindex.adatbank.ro\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=2131"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/csaladenes.egologo.transindex.adatbank.ro\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=2131"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/csaladenes.egologo.transindex.adatbank.ro\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=2131"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}